SAFFIER, CPB?s multi-purpose macromodel
Henk Kranendonk and Johan Verbruggen
Abstract: Since the start in 1945 CPB has build and used many models of the Dutch economy.1 The models of its first director Jan Tinbergen were small and simple. The last sixty years have seen quite a development in statistics, econometrics and economic theory. This stimulated the construction of all kind of larger and more complex models. In this article we present CPB?s most recent macromodel SAFFIER, which stands for ?Short- and medium-term Analysis and Forecasting using Formal Implementation of Reasoning?. This model is the successor of JADE, which was used for medium-term analysis, and SAFE, the quarterly model for short-term the forecasts CPB publishes every quarter.2 In this article we will explain the structure of the model and discuss some econometrical issues concerning the building and the use of the model.